U.S. LNG Developers Scramble for Investment Before Global Gas Surplus Hits

U.S. LNG Developers Scramble for Investment Before Global Gas Surplus Hits

U.S. LNG Developers
Scramble for Investment
Before Global Gas
Surplus Hits
September 9, 2025
Reading time: 5 minutes

Full Story: The Energy Mix
 Mitchell Beer



September 9, 2025
Reading time: 5 minutes

Full Story: The Energy Mix


A looming global surplus of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has U.S. producers scrambling to tie down financing for their projects, even as industry voices and a senior European politician predict continuing demand growth while the Canadian government touts potential LNG exports to Germany.

U.S. developers, no doubt eager to cash in on Donald Trump’s urging to “Drill, Baby, Drill”, are “racing to cash in on the nation’s natural gas export boom while they still can, as global LNG supply will exceed demand by 2027,” Bloomberg reports. The mounting market jitters affect four projects with 63 million tons of capacity per year that are “still awaiting final investment decisions,” the news agency writes, while creating “headwinds” for $35 billion worth of projects that are already under construction.

The news story cites a BloombergNEF projection that global LNG supply will surge past demand by 2027. And that isn’t the only challenge facing companies or countries looking to add new projects to the global mix.

“By 2030, U.S. rival Qatar will have finished its own years-long LNG buildout, further damping appetite for new terminals,” Bloomberg writes. “And by 2031, a massive pipeline expansion by Gazprom PJSC could begin funneling more of Russia’s natural gas to China, possibly displacing as much as 40 million tonnes of LNG demand per year.”

The BloombergNEF analysis reinforces concerns uncovered by The Energy Mix and Berlin-based Clean Energy Wire in late August, after Prime Minister Mark Carney and Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson travelled to Germany to pledge a first wave of Canadian LNG deliveries in “as little as five years”. A week later, London, UK-based Crown LNG announced a $15-billion LNG development off the coast of Newfoundland that has quickly raised alarm bells in the proposed host community of Fermeuse.

“I think you’re probably talking about five to seven years,” Hodgson told Politico EU in an interview in Berlin. And in a CTV News interview September 7, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola reinforced the idea that the EU might even pay a premium for Canadian oil as well as gas to help it free itself from Russian supplies.

“We found ourselves when Russia invaded Ukraine, that we were completely, to a certain extent, reliant on a very unreliable partner for gas and oil, and that meant that we have had to divest, uncouple ourselves, and we’re almost completely done,” she told host Vassy Kapelos. “And where do we go? Where do we look? We have to look across the Atlantic, and the discussions are absolutely in that direction.”

But multiple analysts contacted by The Mix and CLEW said they saw limited prospects for LNG trade.

“In the medium and long term, we’re not anticipating an increase in gas demand, certainly not in Western Europe,” Pawel Czyzak, Europe programme director at the Ember energy think tank, said in an email. EU gas demand fell 17% between 2021 and 2024, spurred largely by the energy shock following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and consumption will continue to shrink through 2030 as Europe electrifies its economy.

That means the continent “is already heavily oversupplied towards 2030,” he said, and “that oversupply will get even more severe if the questionable fossil fuel imports from the EU-U.S. trade [and tariff deal] are implemented.”

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst, Europe with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said the EU is on track to reduce its gas imports 25% by 2030 under REPowerEU, its plan to end its dependency on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 through increased energy efficiency, faster growth in renewable energy, and diversified energy supplies. The plan included voluntary gas reduction targets for 2022, 2023, and 2024, and the bloc exceeded its targets for the first two years, though Jaller-Makarewicz warned in a May, 2024 commentary that EU targets for 2024 and 2025 could allow for increased gas use.

Even so, “EU efforts to curb gas demand and diversify energy sources have been vital for Europe’s security of supply,” she told The Mix in an email. “Cutting dependency on gas from Russia or any other country can be achieved if gas consumption reduction measures continue in place.”

With an affordable energy action plan set to replace up to 100 billion cubic metres (more than 3,500 billion cubic feet) of gas by 2030, she added, “the bloc could satisfy demand without additional gas infrastructure or increased imports.”

On LinkedIn, Adrian Hiel, Brussels-based director of the Electrification Alliance, wrote that he has “a lot of time and respect” for Carney, but can’t understand the push to sell Canadian LNG in Europe.

“There is absolutely no window in the next 25 years when you can think, oh, the EU will really need that LNG then,” he said. “It’s nothing but one effort after another to push expensive, inefficient gas out of the EU’s energy system.”

Heil laid out this point-by-point chronology for the continent’s fossil fuel reduction strategy:

• 2023: EU gas demand is down 19% from 2021-2023;

• 2025/2026: Gas demand largely flat; launch of Clean Industrial Deal, Affordable Energy Action Plan, and Electrification Action Plan, all aiming to reduce gas consumption while increasing electrification and renewables;

• 2026-2030: Enormous glut of U.S. LNG comes to market;

• 2030: EU gas consumption down another 7%;

• 2032 (at the earliest): Canadian LNG export facilities are ready (at the earliest);

• Mid-2030s: No more free credits under Europe’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), so industrial electrification grows even faster;

• 2035: EU electricity supply is mostly renewable, so no LNG is needed;

• 2040: Indicative target for National Building Renovation Plans to have phased out fossil fuel heating (though there are questions surrounding that target);

• 2050: Legally binding target to be net zero.

“Previous Canadian diplomats in the EU have been very clear behind closed doors that LNG sales from eastern Canada will never happen,” Hiel added in response to an online comment. Now, “certainly it costs the Germans nothing to say they want the LNG, and every country likes to have options, but the whole thing just doesn’t add up.”

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‘The crash was a reminder for us all’ – Nikki Henderson - Yachting World

‘The crash was a reminder for us all’ – Nikki Henderson - Yachting World

‘The crash was a reminder for us all’ – Nikki Henderson

• Nikki Henderson
 
• September 9, 2025

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When the pros are caught on camera making mistakes it proves there’s no such thing as a perfect sailor

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You probably saw the collision between the Allagrande Mapei Racing and Team Holcim PRB IMOCAs just moments after the start of the Ocean Race Europe. In the way spectacular disasters are, it was as harrowing as it was addictive to watch. The ease at which Holcim’s foil cut through Allagrande’s headsail cloth was sickeningly impressive, and it’s lucky no one was hurt. But it was also proof of how remarkable these boats are.

The crash was a hearty reminder for us all: mistakes happen, even to the most skilled sailors. If you’re human, you make mistakes, especially in sailing. We need high-profile moments like this to change the culture around mistakes and to remind us that errors don’t make you a bad sailor.

There’s a story many new sailors tell themselves: “When I get good enough at sailing, I won’t mess up anymore.” Perfection feels like the goal, but that’s a myth: perfection is unachievable.

The reality is that mistakes are inevitable. Just consider all the factors that go hand-in-hand with sailing: fatigue, stress, appetite for risk, cognitive overload. Then combine it with the context of changeable weather, unpredictable competitors and high stakes decisions. It’s ludicrous to think otherwise.

I believe we all get allocated the same number of mistakes in life. They just scale relative to your environment and abilities.

Beginner sailors make ‘rookie’ mistakes like tying fenders wrong and dropping them overboard or putting up the wrong headsail.

Intermediate sailors make bolder mistakes, like reefing too late or making sloppy nav calls, usually just when they need a reminder to stay humble.


There was also a crash in Leg 7 of the last Ocean Race

Pros make high speed, high stakes mistakes like aggressive start line tactics or split-second miscalculations. What changes as you progress isn’t the quantity of mistakes you make, it’s the type of mistakes. And while a crash in the Ocean Race might seem bigger than a poorly tied knot, I’ve seen beginners suffer near-panic over small errors. How awful a mistake feels has more to do with you than the slip-up itself.

I hate making mistakes. I hate looking silly or messing up, or worse: being blamed. It probably stems from a fear of rejection. It’s something I have to actively work on.


Mistakes are part of learning and avoiding them means avoiding improving. And the more we fear mistakes the more likely we are to make them. Just put someone under pressure and watch them tie a knot while shouting the oh-so-tempting “hurry up” and you’ll see their hands shake, their brain fog over and voila, it will be tied wrong.

When mistakes happen, what matters most is how you manage them. My mother’s voice still rings in my ears: “I don’t care who started it. Just sort it.” She was talking to my brothers and younger self, but it’s just as relevant at sea. If mistakes are inevitable and we all suffer the same amount, then worrying about blame in the moment is useless. Just look at Kiel: both teams immediately set about repairing their boats to make the next leg. The protest will be resolved later, but the priority was getting back in the race.

Article continues below…

 

Companies are benefiting from AI-driven layoffs

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

There was a time not long ago when a CEO would announce mass firings to the dismay of investors. But these days, with cheaper generative AI replacing the more costly humans, it’s become a point of pride for CEOs—and a reason for shareholders to celebrate. The latest example is Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff telling The Logan Bartlett Show podcast about cutting 4,000 customer service jobs thanks to the type of AI that Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson seemingly can’t function without. In June, Benioff said that AI is doing 50% of the work at Salesforce. Yesterday, the slimmed-down company reported a Q2 double beat on revenue ($10.24b vs. $10.14b) and EPS ($2.91 vs. $2.78), although weaker guidance for Q3 sent the stock tumbling after hours. It’s a feature, not a bug There’s no shortage of companies leveraging AI to remain profitable, to the delight of (non-Salesforce) investors: Wells Fargo’s CEO has touted trimming its workforce for 20 straight quarters. Its stock is up 228% over the past five years. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan wasn’t hiding it during a recent earnings call when he said the company has let go of 88,000 employees over the past 15 years. BofA stock is up 95% since 2020. Amazon, with its share value up 28% over the past year, recently told staff that AI implementation would lead to layoffs. Microsoft has cut 15,000 jobs in the past two months as the company pivots to AI—and its stock is also up since the beginning of July. Zoom out: Per HR Dive, 34% of CEOs plan to enact layoffs in the next 12 months, the fifth straight quarter that number has risen. Molly Kinder, a senior fellow at Brookings, whose expertise is in AI and the present and future of work, told the WSJ: “I don’t think that’s good news for the American worker.”—DL

Proton Emergency Access: What is It?

 

Proton Emergency Access: What is It?

Source: Proton

Imagine being stuck somewhere you cannot access your devices, maybe due to travel restrictions, an accident, a foreign occupation, or even a high-risk situation involving persecution by authorities over your work.

With this, you can assign up to five trusted contacts. These people can request access to your Proton account if you are unavailable, but you stay in control of who gets access during the waiting period.

Once the waiting period is over, access is automatically granted, ensuring your data can be managed when it’s needed most. Moreover, it’s easy to add or remove trusted contacts anytime, and all your data still stays protected under Proton’s end-to-end encryption umbrella.

The waiting period is flexible, btw. It ranges from 1 day to several months, so you decide how long contacts must wait before access is granted. This feature works across all Proton services, like Mail, Calendar, Drive, VPN, Pass, and Wallet. (partner links)

Keep in mind that Emergency Access is only available for users on Proton’s paid plans. Free plan users won’t have access to this feature.

 

The state of NOLA’s economy, 20 years later

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Today marks 20 years since Hurricane Katrina, one of the most devastating natural disasters in US history, first made landfall in New Orleans and continued on to batter the surrounding Gulf Coast. The storm killed over 1,400 people and displaced roughly 1 million residents. Hurricane Katrina’s damage to New Orleans was so massive that lawmakers at the time debated whether the city, in a precarious environmental spot to start with, was worth rebuilding. In the end, the federal government spent over $125 billion on recovery efforts to rebuild and reinforce flood infrastructure, making Katrina the country’s costliest storm. Plenty of setbacks In the present day, New Orleans is one of the weakest employment markets in the country. Its three main industries—tourism, shipping, and oil and gas production—have been hemorrhaging jobs. More residents are leaving the city for opportunities elsewhere. The population of New Orleans has declined by 23% since 2000, the fastest loss of residents of any US city of its size. And it gets worse for its Black residents: New Orleans is now the most income-unequal major city in the US. Despite the median household income in the city moving up just 12% from 2000 to 2020, Black families experienced no income growth during that period. Even though some spots primed for tourism have received facelifts, a number of areas for residents, predominantly neighborhoods that used to be home to large middle-class Black populations, were completely wiped out and never rebuilt. In 2005, the response to Hurricane Katrina was so botched that it led to the head of FEMA resigning and local and federal politicians receiving massive criticism. Some experts argue that the city’s and state’s uses of federal funds have been just as mismanaged, with little thought going into how to actually future-proof power grids and flood systems. Looking ahead…storms, supercharged by climate change, are only getting worse, and the $14 billion revamped levee system in the city is not only sinking faster than engineers predicted, but at risk of massive federal and state budget cuts.—MM

Start Disaster as Two Boats Collide and Return Home In The Ocean Race Europe Leg One

Start Disaster as Two Boats Collide and Return Home In The Ocean Race Europe Leg One

Start Disaster as Two Boats Collide and Return Home In The Ocean Race Europe Leg One

Toby Heppell

Toby Heppell August 11, 2025

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Team Holcim PRB and Allagrande MAPEI Racing were both damaged in the opening miles of The Ocean Race Europe sending both back to the dock

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The opening leg of The Ocean Race Europe was rocked by drama within moments of the starting gun as two of the IMOCA 60s  — Team Holcim PRB and Allagrande MAPEI Racing — collided at speed, forcing both boats to suspend racing and return to the dock in Kiel.

The incident occurred just after the fleet set off in big conditions, with strong winds delivering fast-paced action from the gun. While Biotherm and Paprec Arkéa pulled into the early lead, a sudden side-on impact between Holcim PRB to leeward and Allagrande MAPEI to windward brought the two team’s race to a halt before they had even cleared the first mile.

Both teams are now dockside in Kiel, where shore crews are assessing damage and preparing for rapid repairs. Fortunately, all crew members were reported safe following the collision.

Skipper Ambrogio Beccaria of Allagrande MAPEI Racing expressed visible disappointment on the dock: “I’m sad to be back here now,” he said. “The team made a huge effort to be here and we only did one mile of the race. It’s super sad for our competitor also. We are not alone in this story… We are checking the boat. For sure we will not drop out until there is no chance. It doesn’t seem easy, but we will see.”

Team Holcim PRB, skippered by Rosalin Kuiper, also confirmed significant hull damage. “We had to retire from the race because of damage to our hull,” Kuiper said. “It is very disappointing for our entire team, and for Allagrande MAPEI and for The Ocean Race as well. We have to repair this damage and that is what we are going to do.”

Race Director Phil Lawrence confirmed that both boats had suspended racing and returned to port, and noted that Holcim PRB has lodged a formal protest against Allagrande MAPEI Racing. “This matter will be handled by the International Jury at a time to be determined,” he added.

While the two damaged teams regroup, the race pressed on with Biotherm leading the fleet through the Kiel Lighthouse scoring gate, earning the first two points of the race. Paprec Arkéa followed close behind to take one point. Canada Ocean Racing – Be Water Positive impressed with a strong showing in third, ahead of Team Malizia and Team Amaala.

With strong winds forecast and a challenging course ahead — including wind farms, current zones, and the iconic passage under the Great Belt Bridge — this edition of The Ocean Race Europe is already proving to be intense.

Both Holcim PRB and Allagrande MAPEI Racing hope to rejoin the race in time for the next stage, with further updates expected early in the week.

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RFK Jr has slashed vaccine research. You need to know how perilous that is for the world | Devi Sridhar | The Guardian

RFK Jr has slashed vaccine research. You need to know how perilous that is for the world | Devi Sridhar | The Guardian 

RFK Jr has slashed vaccine research. You need to know how perilous that is for the world

Devi Sridhar

The avian flu virus is now just one mutation away from easier transmission among humans. Donald Trump’s health chief is a grave risk to world health

• Prof Devi Sridhar is chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh

Mon 11 Aug 2025 05.00 EDT

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You’d be hard-pressed to find many public health experts who have positive things to say about Donald Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. Alongside his numerous policy failures, one Cornell University study found that he was the biggest source of Covid-19 misinformation. But if there’s one redeeming feature to Trump’s pandemic record, it has to be his leadership on Operation Warp Speed – a massive, government-funded initiative that played a pivotal role in fast-tracking Covid-19 vaccines.

“Operation Warp Speed stands as one of the most remarkable scientific and humanitarian achievements of the past half-century,” the former US surgeon general Jerome Adams said. It directed billions of dollars into vaccine development and manufacturing, particularly into the mRNA platform, which became the backbone of the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines.

Vaccines work by preparing the body’s immune system to identify and successfully attack foreign agents entering the body. Traditional vaccines use weakened or inactivated viruses to offer a baby version for the body to fight and learn from. These vaccines are often produced by growing the virus in hen’s eggs, which means production is slow and can take months to scale up. In contrast, the mRNA platform functions like a plug-and-play video game console: you just “plug in” the genetic code of a particular virus or pathogen. The vaccine provides instructions to our bodies to make parts of the virus in our own cells, which then prompts an immune response.

The process of creating and manufacturing these vaccines is much faster and more flexible than their traditional counterparts. This is especially important for a disease such as avian flu, which has an up to 100% mortality rate in chickens. But despite the speed in which they come together, there is still a considerable time-lag before mass rollout to allow for clinical trials to ensure human safety, test for side-effects and figure out optimal dosing. During the Covid pandemic, the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines were created within weeks of research teams receiving the genetic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from China in January 2020. What took a year was the testing and regulatory approval processes to ensure there was trust in their safety.

Given Trump’s success with Operation Warp Speed, it’s particularly bizarre that Robert F Kennedy Jr, his health and human services secretary, has announced $500m in cuts to the mRNA vaccine investment portfolio. These include cancelling funding for Moderna’s development into a late-stage H5N1 avian flu vaccine. I asked Prof Rebecca Katz, a global health security expert and former US State Department adviser, for her assessment of the damage. She called it: “A self-inflicted wound to a vital organ.”

On its own, RFK Jr’s decision isn’t surprising, considering his longstanding anti-vax advocacy and cult-like following. He has built a whole identity on anti-science rhetoric and he is especially vocal about the supposed dangers of mRNA technology. But being an anti-vaxxer is also a tricky road to navigate: RFK Jr upset his base when, under considerable political pressure, he finally endorsed MMR vaccinations during the Texas measles outbreak.

But putting one personality aside, what do these cuts mean for the health of people living in the US and the wider world? It’s bad news. Take the example of H5N1 avian flu. This virus has shown concerning step-changes including becoming endemic in wild birds, infecting a number of poultry farms, and now has sufficient mutations to enable cow-to-cow (mammal to mammal) transmission in the US among dairy cattle. With its circulation in certain herds of dairy cattle has come a rise in human infections (cow-to-human). The virus is now one mutation away from easier transmission among humans. That’s the nightmare scenario: an influenza pandemic, possibly more lethal than Covid-19.

If a human-to-human transmissible H5N1 strain appears, the existing mRNA infrastructure could be used to rapidly develop a targeted vaccine. Many countries, including the UK, have been stockpiling vaccine components or ramping up surveillance. Under the Biden administration, the US had been among the leaders in this effort. By shelving investment and halting further development, the US is essentially gambling that we won’t need quick medical countermeasures. It’s a dangerous bet. When the next pandemic happens, the cost in human lives could be much higher than we witnessed in 2020.

Can other countries simply pick up the slack with mRNA production? Not easily. After the Covid pandemic led to huge disparities in which places in the world had access to vaccine supply, many countries starting planning for their own vaccine and mRNA hubs. They didn’t want to be dependent on the charity of the US or UK to donate them doses: they wanted to independently respond effectively. On a National Academies project that I was vice-chair of on the global coordination of vaccines for pandemic influenza, we looked closely into regional production, including in Africa. What I learned from experts across the world is that vaccine production, especially mRNA-based vaccines, requires a high degree of technical expertise, quality control and highly specialised supply chains. It will happen in other places, but not quickly enough to shoulder the impact of the US decision.

Unlike foreign aid cuts, where the effect is felt immediately in the shutting down of food programmes or health clinics, cuts to research funding have a slower, deeper impact, especially in terms of expertise and knowledge generation. Research programmes that were working on pandemic preparedness are closing. Postdoctoral researchers aren’t finding jobs, without the necessary soft money to support them. PhD programmes have been frozen or cancelled. Universities, highly dependent on government funding, are scaling back their research activities in health, especially in areas that money is being cut from. Perhaps most devastating of all: smart, ambitious young scientists have fewer opportunities to develop careers in public health research and vaccine development. They’ll look elsewhere – into AI, tech, finance. Where will the expertise come from in the next 15 to 20 years if the career pipeline is being shut down?

RFK Jr may position himself as Making America Healthy Again, but in reality, his policies make the entire world more vulnerable. He may, in fact, be the most dangerous person in the Trump administration – not because he’s loud or erratic, but because he’s steadily eroding the foundation of public health research and infrastructure. This isn’t just bad policy. It’s a generational setback. In that light, RFK Jr stands not merely as a controversial figure but as a serious risk to national and global health security.

• Prof Devi Sridhar is chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh